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My doubts first stirred almost as soon as the referendum result was announced.
Seraphic smiles covered the previously gloomy faces of Amber Rudd and Sir Alan Duncan, two leading Tories who, during the campaign, were lynchpins of Remain. And then I read the comments of Philip Hammond, a former robust Eurosceptic who, as Foreign Secretary, caught a severe bout of Foreign Office-itis (symptoms: a limpet-like attraction to the EU and all its works) from which he may struggle to recover.In a strikingly downbeat statement to MPs on Tuesday, Mr Hammond suggested it could take six years for Britain to leave the EU. This does not sound to me the observation of a man gung-ho to get on with the job.According to Mr Hammond, whose appointment as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer was announced last night, once Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty has been triggered by Mrs May, there will be two years of exit negotiations, which could well be followed by a further four.He foresees each national parliament of the other 27 members states having to be consulted before agreement is reached.Until such power-houses as Malta, Latvia and Luxembourg are satisfied with every jot and tittle of all the provisions for our withdrawal, we will be left dangling in limbo.If this happened, it would not be good news for the British economy.
For until the future terms of trade with the EU are known, there is likely to be economic uncertainty and an absence of inward investment.We need to work out a new relationship as soon as is practicable — primarily for our own interests, but also for the European Union's.It seems to me that Mr Hammond was searching for obstacles.He was trying to make what should be a challenging, complex and inevitably detailed process into the political equivalent of trying to climb the north face of the Eiger with a yard of frayed rope and a pair of plimsolls.Could it be his lack of determination to get on with negotiations, and conclude them speedily, indicate a want of purpose and conviction?If Mr Hammond were the new Culture Secretary or in charge of the Department of the Environment, such a laid-back attitude to our withdrawal from the EU would hardly matter. Those of a more trusting disposition will rightly point out that Theresa May is a woman of her word who has endlessly repeated the slogan that 'Brexit is Brexit', and confidently declared that we will emerge from our present difficulties into a 'better, brighter future'. There is a world of difference; an almost infinite number of variations.